GOP Strategist Doug Heye: No Good Options for the Dems.
"Last night was less of a debate, however, than a high-stakes cognitive test."
For all of the buzz over the time-honored pre-debate “expectations game” and post-debate “spin room” - Washington abhors a conversation vacuum - none of those mattered for what could be the only joint appearance of President Joe Biden and Donald Trump.
Voters do not follow any of that. But they do watch debates.
Last night was less of a debate, however, than a high-stakes cognitive test. Joe Biden failed. Donald Trump, for all of his problems, passed.
This is confirmed by polling, focus groups and conversation with and among Democrats. Compare Democrats reaction last night and this morning to that of March’s State of the Union address.
“Game changer!” Democrats unanimously claimed to Biden’s lively performance. The reality, though, is that the game never changed and last night’s debate could only be a game changer in a negative sense. Which it was in spades. No Democrat - publicly or privately - is saying that now. Indeed, the spin room last night became a panic room.
Last night confirmed the concerns voters had about Biden’s mental acuity and physical stamina. Voters just don’t feel that Biden is up to the job.
Critically, it is important to note that Biden and Trump have not been officially nominated. For Trump, that will happen in just less than three weeks. Biden’s official nomination would not be for another eight excruciating weeks.
The path ahead for Trump is clear. For Biden? Not so much.
The chatter, while loud, remains behind the scenes. “Party sources,” etc. Not one elected Democrat has publicly called for Biden to step aside or for there to be a challenge at the convention.
Until this happens, nothing happens.
And the conventional wisdom thus far is that comments from Nancy, Hakeem, Chuck, etc. - all of whom have had concerns but stayed silent or praised Biden for being sharp behind closed doors - would rock Biden’s boat. But they might not tip it over. For that to happen, the theory goes, First Lady Jill Biden and Valerie Biden Owens, the president’s sister, would have to intervene.
Were that to happen, Democrats would likely face a chaotic process to determine who would be the nominee - Vice President Harris would not necessarily have the right of first refusal - with a potentially open convention battle. Whomever would emerge would be in a difficult situation of trying to build a national campaign overnight.
So, if Biden stays, it is bad for Democrats. If he goes, it is bad for Democrats.
The best way for Biden to fix this is to be out in public showing himself to be vigorous and cogent. But there’s the rub; like Frank Sinatra in the twilight of his career, Biden is likely to have more bad days than good. Putting Biden in public settings to fix the problem could make it worse, and harder to replace Biden as time goes on.
In the UK Prime Ministerial debate this week, a voter lacerated both Keir Starmer and Rishi Sunak, ending with the question of whether this was the best Britain could do. The same question was, and remains true, here, now but with much more of a focus on, and existential questions about, Biden.
There seem no good options for Democrats.
Douglas Heye, who served as the deputy chief of staff to former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor and Republican National Committee communications director, is a GOP strategist. Follow him on Twitter @dougheye.